And They're Off!

I am old enough to remember a time when journalists eschewed coverage of a political campaign in terms of a horse race. The issues were too important to consider the analogy more than a passing consideration. But as the years have rolled on and journalism has become more about ratings and ad revenue, the horse race has pretty much become all that matters. But how does a person go about conducting a "horse race" between two human politicians? The answer my friend is blowing in the wind. The answer if polls. 

It has gotten to the point where it doesn't matter what the positions on policy the candidates have, but rather how they are doing in the polls. The number one indicator of poll success is name recognition and the winner in that game will almost always be the incumbent. That makes the challenge of bringing entrenched power to heel even more difficult. Incumbents start ahead in the "horse race" and so have an easier time getting funded in a culture in which money is speech, and unlimited amounts are available. Example is Elon Musk throwing forty-five million a month to Sweet Potato Hitler as they round the bend in our current Presidential "horse race". 

But here's the trick. Polls are largely useless. They win out every once in a while, just often enough against random chance to keep people interested, but not often enough to have any real predictive power. We see only the numbers when polls are touted about the "horse race", but we rarely see the questions used to extract the response nor do we necessarily see what mob was being polled. Increasingly the only poll that matters in any political "horse race" is the final one, and that my friends is not until November 5th. 

If we're not very careful with our precious hard-won freedom, this is the only race we might taking part in. This one has lots and lots of losers. 

See you at the polls. 

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